Fewer than 24 people are catching coronavirus each day in London, new modelling suggests, with forecasts predicting the virus could be wiped out in the capital within a fortnight.
Analysis by Public Health England and Cambridge University calculates that the “R” reproduction rate has fallen to 0.4 in London, with the number of new cases halving every 3.5 days.
If cases continue to decrease at the current rate, the virus will be virtually eliminated in the capital by the end of the month, raising questions about whether the strict lockdown measures would need to continue.
On March 23, at the peak of contagion when lockdown was announced, 213,000 people a day caught the virus in London, according to the research.
That fell dramatically as soon as restrictions were brought in, tumbling below 10,000 by April 7. The number of deaths is halving roughly